All discussions

June 20, 2005 to June 26, 2005

Wal-Mart and Employee Health Insurance

Wal-Mart and Employee Health Insurance--Posner

Wal-Mart, the nation's largest private employer, has become embroiled recently in a number of controversies. One concerns health insurance. Wal-Mart provides health insurance to fewer than half its employees (though, as some critics neglect to note, many of the others are covered by spouses' health insurance or by Medicare), and it charges those employees whom it does cover a significant fraction of the total insurance premiums. Critics say, first, that Wal-Mart is being "miserly" toward its employees, who tend to be near the bottom of the economic ladder, and, second, that it is exporting medical costs that it should be defraying to publicly financed health systems, such as Medicaid, to which the uninsured who cannot afford to pay their medical expenses out of their own pocket turn. Some of the critics want employers to be required by law to provide health insurance for all their employees.

Economic analysis suggests that these criticisms, especially the first, lack merit, and that employer-mandated health insurance is not a good idea. This is not, however, because employee health insurance is likely to be more costly than individually purchased insurance, in which event it would be obvious why many employees would want to forgo it. Actually, it's likely to be less costly. Insurance is cheaper when all members of a group satisfying specified eligibility requirements are required to join the insurance plan, because without the compulsory feature those members having the lowest incidence of whatever risk is being insured against, such as the risk of incurring medical costs, would tend to drop out of the plan, since they would be subsidizing the higher-risk individuals in the plan; and the result of this dropping out would be an upward spiral in the cost of the insurance. That is why individual policies are more costly than group policies.

Another, and quite arbitrary, attraction of employee group health insurance is that like many other fringe benefits, it is not taxable. If an individual earns $50,000 and spends $5,000 to buy health insurance, he pays income tax on the full $50,000, and suppose the amount of the tax is $10,000 (20 percent). Then after paying for the health insurance policy he has $35,000 left. But if his employer pays him a salary of $45,000 (on which the income tax is, let us say, $9,000--which assumes the same 20 percent income-tax rate, though it might well be lower) and gives him a health insurance policy that costs the employer $5,000, the employee has $36,000 ($45,000 salary minus $9,000 tax) and so he is better off. But probably few Wal-Mart employees pay much income tax--which may be a partial explanation for why Wal-Mart does not offer health insurance to more of its employees.

It is entirely rational for a subset of employees, especially low-income employees, to prefer not to be covered by their employer's group health insurance policy even if they have no other health insurance. The basic reason is fact that from the employer's standpoint, the cost of a fringe benefit is no different from the cost of a wage. If the employer is prepared to pay an employee a salary of $45,000 and give him an insurance policy that costs the employer $5,000, then if the employee doesn't want the insurance the employer will be willing to pay him a salary of $50,000. Suppose the employee has no significant assets--a realistic assumption if he is a low-income employee. Then if he becomes ill he'll be able to obtain medical care free of charge under Medicaid, though it will be of lower quality than paid-for care. Suppose the value of that lower-quality care is only $3,000. Nevertheless the employee is better off without the insurance; his net income will be $53,000 ($50,000 in salary plus $3,000 in insurance value) versus $50,000 ($45,000 in salary plus an insurance policy worth $5,000) with the insurance.

Even if the employee is paid only the minimum wage (which for simplicity I'll assume is $5 an hour), so that the employer, were he to provide health insurance, would be forbidden to make a compensating wage cut, the employee would be better off without the insurance. Suppose the minimum wage, multiplied by 2000 (a 40-hour work week for 50 weeks), yields an annual wage of $10,000. If that is all that the employee's work is worth to the employer, the employer will not offer the insurance. If the employer does offer the insurance, say at a cost to him of $2,000, then he would be willing to pay the employee more than the minimum wage--an additional $1 an hour ($2,000 divided by 2000)--if the employee forewent the insurance and relied instead on Medicaid.

The second criticism of Wal-Mart's refusal to provide health insurance to all its employees who do not have other coverage has somewhat greater merit. There is an externality: employees who lack health insurance usually lack significant assets as well, so when they get sick the taxpayer pays their medical expenses. These employees thus externalize the costs of their medical treatment. This is true even though there is a sense in which a program like Medicaid does not eliminate the insurance principle but merely substitutes social for private insurance, with the taxes that pay for Medicaid corresponding to conventional insurance premiums. But only the poor are eligible for Medicaid, and they do not pay their actuarially fair tax to support the program. Otherwise there wouldn't have to be a Medicaid program.

But the externality cannot be fully eliminated by passing a law that would require Wal-Mart and other employers of low-income employees to insure all their employees. This is clearest in the case of minimum-wage employees who at present are not insured. Since the labor cost that an employer incurs is the sum of the wage he pays and the cost of any fringe benefits, forcing the employer to incur a total labor cost of $12,000 for an employee worth to the employer only $10,000 will simply cause that employee to be fired, with little prospect of obtaining another job; so he will lose his health insurance and be thrown back on Medicaid. Suppose instead that the employer is willing to incur a total labor cost of $12,000 for this employee, but the latter prefers a cash wage in that amount and no insurance, and now suppose as before that the employer is forced to insure him. The employer will reduce the employee's wage to $10,000, which may inflict significant hardship because the employee needs the cash more than he wants insurance (if he has no assets, he may well not need or want any health insurance). Notice the perverse redistributive effect: the average taxpayer, who is indeed made better off because the employee is now paying for his own health care, is wealthier than the average low-income employee.

The analysis is slightly complicated by the fact that if low-income employees have equally good alternatives to working for their current employer, they may not have to accept a reduction in wage equal to the increased cost to their employer of being forced to provide health insurance. Suppose in the example just given that although the health-insurance policy costs the employer $2,000, it is worth only $200 to the employee, so that he will perceive a reduction in his wage to $10,000 as a reduction in his full income from $12,000 to $10,200. And suppose that when he took the job with Wal-Mart he turned down an equivalent job with another employer that would have paid him $11,500 and that this job is still open. Then it might seem that Wal-Mart, to retain the employee, would have to pay him $11,300, since that amount, plus the $200 that is the value he derives from the health insurance policy, equals $11,500.

But this ignores the fact that the other employer, too, presumably is being subjected to the requirement of providing health insurance. It too will see its labor costs soar and therefore it will not pay as high a wage as before the requirement was imposed.

I mentioned that Wal-Mart is also criticized for making its employees pick up a big portion of the health insurance tab. But this may actually benefit the employees. Suppose that if Wal-Mart paid the entire tab, the average cost to the company of health insurance would be $5,000 per employee per year. If it charges the employee $1,000 a year in premiums, the cost to Wal-Mart will be only $4,000, so it will be willing to raise the employee's salary by $1,000. This may seem a complete wash, but it is not. For with the employee paying a big chunk of the premiums, the total cost is likely to be lower than $5,000, which would permit a net wage increase. The reason it is likely to be lower is that employees will economize on their demand for medical care if they incur a positive marginal cost for that care.

Comment on Employee Health Insurance--BECKER

I agree with Posner that companies should not be forced to provide health insurance for all their employees since some employees may not want such insurance--for example, they may get it from a spouse. I also agree that co-payments should be required from employees since otherwise they have a strong incentive to use excessive medical care. Some of the older companies with generous health insurance plans, such as those in the automotive sector, now face staggering health expenses, in part because their plans had negligible co-payments by employees.

However, even employee co-payments of 10 or 20 per cent--which is at the high end--may not provide sufficient incentive for them to economize on health spending. An important improvement is health savings accounts (HSA), which were authorized by Congress in 2003 for everyone not on Medicare who has a health plan with high deductibles, such as $1000 for an individual and $2000 for a family. A family can make an annual tax-free contribution to its HAS that cannot exceed its deductible on its health plan, and is subject to an upper limit-- in 2005 the limit for families is $5250. If in any year they spend less on medical care than they put in, they can carry the balance forward, and invest the remainder on a tax-free basis until age 65.

No further contributions are allowed once a person reaches age 65 and usually enrolls in Medicare. Remaining balances on an HSA can then be used as a retirement annuity. This annuity is taxed without penalty as resources are withdrawn for spending on non-medical expenses.

HSAs provide a strong incentive to economize on medical expenses in any year since unspent amounts can be carried forward to future years when possibly more important medical problems arise. They can also be carried into retirement and used as a supplement to retirement income. As a result, HSAs give families a much stronger reason to scrutinize whether various medical expenses are really necessary since they would be trading off present care for future care and other future benefits.

Although co-payment medical systems also provide some incentive to economize on spending, most of the additional expense would be borne by the medical insurer, such as his employer, HMO, or insurance company, since the co-payment rate is a fraction of the total. HSAs provide stronger incentives to use medical care efficiently because all dollars saved today by the insured can be used for medical care in the future.

Since an HSA requires a large deductible, they are best when combined with a form of catastrophic insurance; that is, medical insurance that pays only for large, expensive, and unusual medical problems. For this reason, and to cut down free riding by the uninsured on taxpayers, I believe everyone should be require to have catastrophic medical insurance--with the very poor covered by Medicaid. The premium on such catastrophic coverage might be allowed to be deducted from taxable income, the way HSA contributions are.

Although employers are increasingly providing HSAs, families that start them on their own would receive the same tax benefits as when they are provided by employers. The United States' system of employer provided health care is not the usual one in most of the world. It was given a boost during World War II because employers could offer this "fringe" benefit to help get around controls over wages during a tight labor market with strong competition for a limited pool of labor. It remained afterwards because the growth in income tax rates gave an increasing advantage to any system that allowed premiums for health insurance to be provided tax-free.

Prior to the passage of the 2003 law on HSAs, individuals and families who purchased health insurance on their own were at a disadvantage compared to employee health insurance since they could not deduct their health insurance premiums unless they itemized their medical expenses. This advantage explains why employers provide the vast majority of health plans for persons of working ages.

But now an HSA provides an alternative that allows tax-free contributions to medical accounts that can be independent of employment. An HSA combined with catastrophic health insurance provides a very good system of health coverage. Catastrophic plans also need not be taken through an employer but could occur through a fraternal organization, church, professional association, or other group that gains the economies of administrative scale from group coverage, and can average risks of serious illness among different members.

The establishment of HSAs provides an opening wedge into removing the special privileges granted to employer provided health insurance. The next step would be to remove the tax advantage from all employer plans except HSAs, and except perhaps catastrophic health coverage if contributions to non-employer catastrophic plans are also tax-free.

Responses to Comment on Employee Health Insurance-BECKER

I have only a few reactions to the comments. The various state mandates on health coverage by insurance companies are a major problem in the American health insurance system that I did not address. One person mentions that New York State prohibits large deductions to individual accounts. I was not familiar with this, but I am not surprised. However, I am not sure that this is consistent with the HSA Act of 2003, which requires large deductions in order to implement an HSA.

Catastrophic care is clearly important, but is by no means the dominant source of medical care. In fact, it is generally not important for families up to age 60 or so. These families would gain the most from the combination of an HSA with catastrophic coverage.

If my proposal for catastrophic insurance is implemented, I am convinced many insurance companies would jump into this market, unless price controls over premiums made this type of coverage uneconomic.

One of the interesting aspects about drugs is that costs are typically per pill rather than per unit dosage. I regularly cut pills in half to take advantage of this. I am surprised more people do not do this.

I have no personal interest in the proposals I made. The health insurance at my university is fine, but I hope it moves to an HSA system.

More generally, I always prefer a large deductible on every type of insurance when I am given a choice. Individuals are much better at covering small loses than are insurance companies, and can take various efficient actions to minimize their expenditures on such loses. This is why HSA's are such a good idea.

Someone asked my opinion of the attempted takeover of Unocal by the state-owned Chinese oil company, China National Offshore Oil Corporation. I do not see any good reason to oppose it. If they can run this company more efficiently, the United States is better off, not worse off. We went through such fears about Japanese takeovers of American companies during the 1980's. Mainly, they overpaid for these companies, and in effect transferred wealth to Americans!

The Japanese Keiretsu have declined a lot in importance since economic stagnation set in there during the early 1990's. No, our organization of business is totally different, so I do not see the slightest risk of such a development in the U.S.