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July 31, 2005

Islamist Violence and Immigration Policy

Islamist Violence and Immigration Policy--Posner

A long article by Robert S. Leiken, "Europe's Angry Muslims," in the July/August 2005 issue of Foreign Affairs, written before the recent London bombings, when it is read in conjunction with the economist-columnist Paul Krugman's column in the* New York Times* this past Friday (July 29), entitled "French Family Values," brings into focus important issues of immigration policy, and, more fundamentally, of the different economic and cultural models of the United States and Western Europe.

Leiken points out the strong appeal of Islamic extremism to the large Muslim minorities in countries such as France, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the Netherlands (in France, the Muslim population is approaching 10 percent of the total population; in Netherlands, 6 percent), including many second-generation Muslims--Muslims who were born in these countries but have not adopted their political or cultural values. The widespread penetration of these nations by Islamic extremists lies behind political murder in the Netherlands, bombings in the United Kingdom and Spain, and widespread anti-Semitic vandalism in France. The nations of Western Europe appear to be riddled with Islamist terrorist cells that also incubate plots to attack the United States. The non-Muslim populations of Western Europe are increasingly and in some instants lethally hostile to their Muslim minorities. In contrast, although there are several million Muslims in the United States (more than in the U.K., for example, though constituting a smaller percentage--about 1 percent versus almost 3 percent), most of them, like their counterparts in Europe, of Middle Eastern or Central Asian heritage, the American Muslim community is well integrated. It is prosperous (with a median income actually slightly above the national average), so far unthreatening (though security officials believe there are some terrorist cells; and heavy-handed tactics by the FBI since the 9/11 attacks have caused some disaffection among American Muslims), and not objects of significant hostility by non-Muslim Americans.

Krugman's column does not mention Europe's Muslims, but in defense of the French (more broadly, the European) model, argues that the French have made a good trade--their average incomes are significantly lower than those of Americans, but they work a good deal less. This is partly because of a much higher unemployment rate than in the United States (Krugman's complacency about high unemployment is notable), but mainly because Western Europeans work fewer hours per week, take much longer vacations, and retire earlier. In effect they trade material goods for leisure, a trade that Krugman regards as a sign of high civilization. Krugman (here relying on a recent working paper by the economists Alberto Alesina, Edward Glaeser, and Bruce Sacerdote) recognizes that the greater leisure of the French and other Europeans is, as it were, forced, because it is the product of laws that restrict labor mobility and hence work opportunities, make it difficult to fire lazy workers, provide a variety of economic benefits uncoupled from work, and even restrict the number of hours a week a person can work. But, further relying on the working paper, Krugman argues that without compulsion, workers could not get the amount of leisure they really want, because leisure is not worth as much if other people don't have it, assuming leisure has a strong social component--that you engage in leisure activities with other people, and therefore suffer a loss if they don't have leisure time to spend with you.

Krugman's failure to relate the European model to Europe's Muslim problem is telling. To point to the upside of Europe's social model without mentioning the most serious downside is to provide bad advice to our own policymakers. The assimilation of immigrants by the United States, compared to the inability of the European nations to assimilate them--with potentially catastrophic results for those nations--is not unrelated to the differences between economic regulation in the United States and Europe. Because the U.S. does not have a generous safety net--because it is still a nation in which the risk of economic failure is significant--it tends to attract immigrants who have values conducive to upward economic mobility, including a willingness to conform to the customs and attitudes of their new country. And because the U.S. does not have employment laws that discourage new hiring or restrict labor mobility (geographical or occupational), immigrants can compete for jobs on terms of substantial equality with the existing population. Given the highly competitive character of the U.S. economy, in contrast to the economies of Europe, employers cannot afford to discriminate against able workers merely because they are foreign and perhaps do not yet have a good command of English. By the second generation, most immigrant families are fully assimilated, whatever their religious beliefs or ethnic origins.

In contrast, even in a country such as France that has a declared policy of requiring all immigrants to assimilate, immigrants from alien cultures, such as that of the Islamic world, tend to be marginalized and isolated, even in the second and later generations. European unfriendliness to immigrants might be thought a cultural rather than an economic phenomenon, but the paper by Alesina, Glaeser, and Sacerdote on which Krugman relies argues that the European preference for leisure, also supposedly cultural, rests on policy, specifically the employment laws. So too in all likelihood is the difficulty European nations have in assimilating immigrants. The less fluid, less competitive, less market-oriented, and indeed less materialistic (the only color important to businessmen is green) a national economy is, the less opportunity it will provide to alien entrants.

Advocates of the European model point to the pockets of poverty in the United States, but may not realize that poverty cannot be abolished without recourse to measures that produce the social pathologies that we observe in Europe. Social mobility implies the opportunity to fail. If society protects jobs, the employment opportunities of ambitious newcomers are reduced and they may end up at the embittered margin of society. Thus, it is not poverty that breeds extremism; it is social policies intended in part to eradicate poverty that do so, by obstructing exit from minority subcultures. If Muslims in European societies do not feel a part of those societies because public policy does not enable them to compete for the jobs held by non-Muslims--if instead, excluded from identifying with the culture of the nation in which they reside they perforce identify with the worldwide Muslim culture--some of them are bound to adopt the extremist views that are common in that culture. The resulting danger to Europe and to the world is not offset by long vacations.

COMMENT ON IMMIGRATION POLICY-BECKER

Krugman's recent New York Times article on French "family values" cited by Posner is the latest of many attempts during the past decade to justify, high labor taxes, restrictions on the ability of companies to shed employees, a French law that restricts work to no more than 35 hours per week, and various other restrictive labor-market legislation in continental countries. They supposedly lead to more civilized goals than are obtained in the freer Anglo-Saxon markets. That this leads to very high unemployment rates and limited job opportunities, especially for immigrants and young low skilled native-born men and women, and a shortage of part-time work for mothers and others, is the price that apparently has to be paid for these advantages.

But are any advantages of this system worth such a high price? Clearly, the European system of employment helps the "insiders" with good jobs, and works against "immigrants" and other newcomers,or "outsiders" in labor markets. It is claimed that the European system promotes "family values" over individualistic ones. Yet the data do not support this contention since marriage rates are lower in Europe than in America, and not a single European country has birth rates that are high enough to maintain their populations without continued immigration. The French birth rates are somewhat higher than their neighbors only because of massive subsidies to having children. Yet even the French rates are way below replacement levels and those in the United States.

Workers in France, Germany and other continental European nations are also said to gain more leisure hours that they want and yet are unable to obtain in freer labor markets of the Anglo-Saxon type since each work decision there is made more individualistically rather than collectively. But there is no evidence that these regulations are the result of a strong demand to consume leisure jointly with other families. As Robert Putnam, the author of "Bowling Alone", and others have pointed out, the trend has been just the opposite: sharply away from joint consumption of leisure in clubs or bars, and more consumption through individualistic activities like television and computer games. Is there pleasure in the traffic jams that develop as virtually all the French, Italians, and German families that can afford it go on their August vacations to the same limited number of beach and mountain resorts?

The prospects of declining population and the heavy financial burden from the payments needed to provide generous retirement income and health benefits to older persons would seem to lead European countries to try to attract young immigrants who would pay taxes on their earnings to help finance the cost of these entitlements. The labor market restrictions, however, make it hard for immigrants to obtain jobs in the legal economy, so either they are unemployed, or they work in the flourishing underground economies of Europe, where they avoid paying taxes. Apparently, the French intentionally do not collect data on unemployment rates of their Muslim population, but economists there tell me they believe it is more than double the official overall French rate of over 10 per cent unemployed.

Given the poor work prospects of Muslim immigrants, and the fact that the German, French, Dutch, and other European populations do not generally like their Muslim minorities, it is no wonder that Muslims there feel alienated from the general society. As a result, some of them become bitter, and develop hatred of the West and the fanaticism that leads to radicalism and terrorism. That only feeds greater opposition from the general population, which helps explain why the French and Dutch strongly voted against approving the new European Constitution.

There is an ongoing debate among economists over whether social mobility is greater in the United States or Europe. The general evidence on this does not offer a definitive answer, but there is little doubt that most immigrants believe opportunities for themselves and their children are greater in the United States. This is why America is the first choice of most immigrants whenever they can choose where to go, and it also explains the different attitudes of immigrants in Europe and America. As Posner emphasizes, most immigrants, non-Muslim as well as Muslim, feel far more accepted in the United States than in Europe, are less segregated here in both their living arrangements and employment, and appear to advance more easily toward higher level jobs. As a result, they are less promising material for radical Islam, although clearly radicals are operating and planning in the United States as well as in Europe.

However, the British experience is somewhat disturbing to this thesis, for Great Britain is at least a partial counter example to our analysis. For British labor markets are very much like those in the United States; in fact, Britain has lower unemployment rates than the U.S., has equal labor market flexibility, and provides above ground jobs for Muslims and other immigrants.

I believe the main reason for the difference with the United States is that new immigrants are easily accepted in this country since it is a nation of present or past immigrants. Foreigners of all kinds have never been so welcome in Britain, and are even less welcome in continental Europe. So even under the best of economic conditions, immigrants in Europe do not easily integrate into the general society. Still I confess these vicious attacks on London subways and buses are not only awful, but I also find them difficult to understand.