November 13, 2005
Campaign Finance
Campaign Finance--Posner's Response to Comments
A rich set of comments. Several suggest that the solution to the "soft bribery" problem is to require that all campaign contributions be anonymous; then no one could prove that he had contributed to a particular candidate. The problem is that, since "soft bribery" is an important motive for contributions, the total amount of contributions, and hence of political advertising, will fall, and so there will be reduced dissemination of political information. That is a loss. I do not know whether it would exceed the gain from reducing the amount of soft bribery, but it might well. The brunt would be borne by new entrants, who need to advertise more in order to make a dent in the "brand recognition" of incumbents. In addition, the wealthy, who are the big donors, are not a monolith; they have competing interests and therefore provide virtual representation for many ordinary people, such as the employees of the big corporations. Also the wealthy do not have the votes; their political advertisements are aimed at average people. Furthermore, if some candidates court the wealthy, this will drive others to raise money from the nonwealthy, something that the Internet has made easier to do, as we learned in the 2004 presidential election. The nonwealthy give less per capita, of course, but there are vastly more of them.
Still another point is that even the wealthy do not care solely about policies likely to benefit them. They also care about leadership, always a major focus in a presidential election.
I agree with the comment which suggests that increased political advertising could reduce turnout. The politicians are not interested in maximizing turnout, but in winning, and a winning strategy may be to depress turnout if higher turnout would produce more votes for your opponent. Negative advertising might provoke counter advertising also negative, the net effect of which was to reduce turnout but to the advantage of the candidate who had initiated the negative campaign.
I do not agree, however, that advertising in commercial markets is likely to depress output (the analog of turnout in the electoral market). The comment that argues this points out that in a cartelized market, that is, in a market in which the sellers have agreed not to compete in price, there is a tendency for nonprice competition, including advertising, to increase, as sellers vie to engross the largest possible share of the profits generated by the cartel price. I don't see how forbidding advertising in such a setting would result in higher output; it would simply increase the sellers' profits at the cartel price. On the contrary, by reducing the erosion of cartel profits through nonprice competition, the advertising ban would tend to make the cartel last longer. But in any event there is no price competition in the political market because politicians can't buy votes directly. Advertising (broadly defined) is the only permitted method of competition.
Finally, I disagree with the suggestion, common though it is, that unlimited campaign spending impairs democracy by giving political power to the wealthy, or more precisely to any individuals or groups able and willing to spend disproportionately to support particular candidates or policies. The suggestion confuses democracy with equality. Democracy is the political system in which the principal officials are forced to stand for election at short intervals. The identity and policies of the officials may well be influenced by the underlying distribution of income and wealth in society, but that does not make the society less democratic.
Response on Campaign Contributions--BECKER
Thanks for very good comments. First, my apologies to Senator McCain for a typo in the spelling of his name.
Campaign contributions do involve rent seeking, but they are not all socially wasted if they lead to desirable political outcomes. If I knew of an effective way to cut down contributions without affecting outcomes I might support it. But no one has ever come up with proposals that do not have huge loopholes. Since I indicated in my discussion that total spending on campaign contributions is rather small, I believe we are better off allowing great freedom to contribute rather then trying to cap them, or in other ways cut down on wasteful components of contributions.
It is not useful to say that democracy should involve cooperation rather than competition. Every system of government must have a method for actually reaching political decisions, as opposed to simply describing our hopes for how decisions should be reached. Most modern approaches to democracy since Joseph Schumpeter's discussion in Capitalism, Socialism, and Democracy have involved important aspects of political competition as a way of reaching political decisions.
The reason political freedom is useful is not that top leaders always emerge, but that one avoids the sometime terrible policies of totalitarian leaders. A free press and political competition do not guarantee good outcomes, but it helps reduce the likelihood of the really awful outcomes produced by a Stalin, Mao, or Hitler.
Advertising in politics or the economy helps unknown leaders or unknown firms break into a political or economic market. To me that is a great advantage of all advertising. Nor is it clear that advertising raises prices of the products advertised (see the discussion of the theory and evidence in G. S. Becker and K. M. Murphy, "A Simple Theory of Advertising as a Good or Bad", Quarterly Journal of Economics, Nov. 1993).
I agree that I should have been more careful in distinguishing self-financing of campaigns from campaign contributions more generally. The evidence I cited on the small effect of campaign contributions on outcomes refers to general contributions. James Snyder gives a good summary of this evidence in an article in the Winter 2003 issue of the Journal of Economic Perspectives.