September 9, 2007
China's Air Pollution
China's Air Pollution-Becker
It is more or less inevitable that China's economy will spew out a lot of pollution, given its extraordinary rate of growth for over 20 years, and the abundant supplies of coal that fuel its power generation. The important question raised by Posner is what, if anything, will induce China to cut its pollution, including the pollution that spreads internationally to its eastward Asian neighbors and countries in the western hemisphere, especially Canada and the United States.
Posner emphasizes the potential for international collaboration because the harm to these affected countries will tend to exceed the cost to China from cutting its pollution. China is imposing a burden on these other nations that it does not fully incorporate into its decisions about which fuels to use, how to invest in scrubbing and sequestering technologies and equipment that reduce the amount of pollutants that its plants use, its taxation of gasoline that discourage driving and more efficient cars, and the many other ways to reduce pollution. Since greater pollution-reduction efforts would lower the growth rate of its output, the harm to other nations would not enter into its policy calculations unless forced to by threats of economic retaliation, or induced to do so by various forms of intercountry compensation and cooperation.
The New York Times article referred to by Posner indicates that opposition to pollution is also growing rapidly in China itself for reasons that have little to do with protests of other countries. When countries start developing rapidly, their first concern is greater resources for consumption and investment, for they do not believe they can afford to take extensive measures to control air pollution if that slows down their growth out of poverty. As they get richer, however, concerns about the level and growth of various types of pollutants get magnified. As economies continue to develop, their citizens exert greater pressure on governments to improve air and water quality. Governments generally respond by regulating and taxing more extensively the omission of pollutants.
The result typically is that air, water, and other kinds of pollution at first rise sharply with economic development, and then fall about equally sharply as development proceeds still further. This inverted U-shaped relation between a country's level of pollution and its level of GDP per capita is called the "Environmental Kuznets Curve" after the Nobel prize-winning economist, Simon Kuznets. He had established such an inverted U-shaped relation between income inequality within a country and its level of per capita GDP, and researchers discovered about 20 years ago that the same type of inverted U relation holds for environmental damage, such as particulates in the air. In fact, the two Kuznets relations are not independent since one way to reduce inequality in measures of full income that include environmental damage is to reduce the degree of pollution.
Prior to the discovery of this U-shaped environmental relation, the general opinion was that environments were inevitably damaged more as industrialization increased and economies developed. That is still a common view among those unfamiliar with the evidence. To be sure, the full evidence indicates that no single relation between environmental effects and economic development fits all pollutants in all countries. For example, theory predicts that domestic opposition would make governments more responsive to local pollutants of air and water, and less responsive to global pollution, such as emission of greenhouse gases. In fact, the U-shaped relation does seem to hold better for local pollutants.
These Kuznets-type relations are beginning to take hold in China, as judged from the growing complaints about various types of pollution, and discussions by scientists and government officials about steps to take to respond positively to these complaints. This reaction to internal complaints may not be sufficient to satisfy its neighbors in Asia and in the Western hemisphere since as I mentioned, different types of pollution operate within and between countries. Moreover, China's richer neighbors would be more sensitive to pollution than the poorer Chinese are. However, as China continues to develop, the complaints due to "internal" externalities will begin to interact more with the complaints due to the "external" externalities imposed on other countries. The combination of internal and external complaints should push China even faster along reductions in environmental damage than has been typical in the past when countries responded mainly only to internal complaints about pollution levels.
How to Control China's "Export" of Air Pollution--Posner
Two weeks ago the New York Times published an article on pollution in China: "As China Roars, Pollution Reaches Deadly Extremes," Aug. 26, 2007, section 1, page 1. The point of interest is this: "Sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides spewed by China's coal-fired power plants fall as acid rain on Seoul, South Korea, and Tokyo. Much of the particulate pollution over Los Angeles originates in China" (p. 6). These effects are separate from China's growing contribution to global warming: it is possible that by the end of this year China will surpass the United States as the leading emitter of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. Although China is making some efforts to curb pollution, its efforts are more likely to reduce the rate of growth of pollution than to reduce it from its current level, because of the continued rapid expansion of the Chinese economy, which includes a rapid growth in the number of vehicles using China's roads.
Global warming affects the entire earth, though unequally, but Chinese air pollution is "exported" mainly to a few nations, mainly Korea, Japan, and the western United States. Other differences between the carbon-emission and conventional air-pollution phenomena are that there is far more uncertainty about the magnitude of the threat posed by global warming, and far greater costs to arresting global warming, than in the case of China's external air pollution, and this enables one to see the problem of international control of air pollution in rather clearer terms than that of controlling carbon emissions.
It is a problem of externalities. The costs of Chinese air pollution to Koreans, Japanese, and Americans are not costs to China, and the benefits of abating this external pollution would not be benefits to China. But this description of the problem ignores the Coase theorem, one version of which is that if transaction costs are low, the market itself will internalize externalities and thus solve the externalities problem. We might think of the present legal regime as one in which China has a property right in the activities that give rise to pollution, or stated more precisely that its ownership of coal-fired power plants, gasoline-powered vehicles, and so forth carries with it a right to pollute. If so, then Korea, Japan, and the United States (assuming they are the only countries seriously affected by Chinese pollution) could persuade China to reduce its pollution by paying China an amount of money just slightly above what it would cost China to reduce its pollution "exports" to these countries to the level desired by the "victim" nations. This assumes that the cost of the negotiations, both among the victim nations and with China, would not be so great as to prevent a deal that made all the parties involved better off; but it is not clear why those costs should be particularly high. Nor is there a serious danger that China would increase its polluting activities in order to extort more money from the other nations, since pollution hurts the people of China far more than it hurts any other population (the pollution described in the Times article is grotesque in its magnitude and lethality).
The transaction would be efficient, but it would also bring about a transfer of wealth from what I am calling the victim nations to China. But this is a common kind of market event. A real estate developer who wanted to create a residential community on land adjacent to a funeral home, and feared that the funeral home's presence would depress house values by giving the occupants of the houses an unwelcome reminder of their mortality, could pay the funeral home to relocate.
And if buying off a polluter seems crass--"Greens" would denounce it for conveying the message that pollution is a legitimate byproduct of economic activity (a "commodity" for the victims of air pollution to buy from the polluter)--there are other means of inducing China to reduce air pollution. There are things that China wants from Korea, Japan, and the United States, and these countries can give China some of those things in barter for China's strengthening its enforcement of its existing pollution controls or adopting and enforcing newer, more stringent ones.
An alternative would be to negotiate an international agreement by which China and all other nations surrendered control over their pollution to an international environmental protection agency. But the transaction costs would be prohibitive, in part because of extreme uncertainty about the policies that the agency would adopt. Nations do not surrender their sovereignty lightly.